Agent-based modelling of urban sanitation: informal settlements in Nairobi

Abstract

During the last two decades, Nairobi in Kenya has experienced a rapid increase in its urban population. With the number of houses failing to match the increase in urban population, a number of informal settlements (slums) have mushroomed. As the population of these areas continues to increase, the inability of the local authorities to provide basic sanitation services for the urban dwellers is becoming a serious problem. The unprocessed soil water being discarded into the environment is not only adversely affecting the ecosystem; it is also creating unhygienic conditions that are conducive for the transmission of diseases in the densely populated informal settlements. A number of community-based organisations (CBOs) have undertaken various initiatives to mitigate against such problems. These organizations operate largely independently and there is no evidence of an evaluation being undertaken across the board to model the social, economical and environmental impact of the existing sanitation initiatives. This paper describes a proposed agent-based model that is aimed at doing just that. The proposed system will increase the comparative efficacy in the selected domain by modeling the values and incentives for the different organisations in various scenarios.