EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON NATURAL RESOURCES AND TOURISM SUSTAINABILITY IN MAASAI MARA NATIONAL RESERVE, KENYA

Abstract

The tourism industry contributes significantly to global economic development, particularly in terms of job creation and wealth creation in developing nations and regions where tourism is frequently the primary source of revenue. However, there is worldwide concern on climate change as one of the biggest obstacles for attaining development. The tourism sector in Kenya that is nature based is not immune to climate change. This study used systems theory to investigate the effects of climate change on natural resources and tourism sustainability in Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR). The extent to which climate change affects natural resources that tourism depends on is explored. The specific objectives of the study were: To establish the effects of climate change on natural resources in MMNR; to identify the effects of natural resources on tourism sustainability in MMNR; to determine the relationship between climate change and tourism sustainability in MMNR; and to explore the mediating effects of climate change and natural resources on tourism sustainability in MMNR. Explanatory and descriptive research designs were used in this study. In Narok County, the target population was 169,220 households, 300 tourists, and 18 experts. Simple random sampling, convenience sampling, and snowball sampling were used to sample 507 respondents that included 399 households, 90 tourists, and 18 experts. Key informant interviews were used to collect data from climate change experts and tourists while structured questionnaires were administered to the heads of households in the local community. The Cronbach Alpha Coefficient was used to evaluate instrument reliability, while expert opinion was used to determine validity. Data from the interviews was analyzed qualitatively using thematic analysis. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) technique was used to evaluate changes in vegetation cover using satellite images. Rainfall and temperature data were analyzed using the Man Kendall trend test. With the help of SPSS V.23, quantitative data was analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. The relationship between the variables was determined using linear regression while the mediation effects were tested using the Process Macro. The study findings indicated that there was a positive significant relationship between climate change and natural resources (β=0.286 and p=0.000), a positive significant relationship between natural resources and tourism sustainability (β=0.393 and p=0.000); and controlling for the mediator (natural resources), climate change remained a significant predictor of tourism sustainability (c‟ = 0.730). Therefore, rainfall and temperature variations trigger a mediating effect on vegetation that supports wildlife populations which forms the foundation of Kenya‟s tourism. These wildlife populations have the potential to influence sustainability of the tourism industry. The study findings raise the need for urgent interventions by the tourism industry stakeholders to consider developing alternative wildlife based tourism products in the advent of declines in wildlife populations as a result of erratic rainfall and temperature patterns. In addition, tourism destination managers need to have contingency plans in the advent of extreme climate events. It is crucial that relevant policy frameworks aimed at addressing climate change effects and its associated risks on wildlife that the tourism industry thrives on are enacted and fully implemented.